Climate Security

Complex agricultural based societies evolved over the last 10,000 years in a world with a relatively stable climate. The historical record shows multiple examples of climate fluctuations driving social unrest & conflict; overwhelming governance systems designed to keep the peace. As human activities cause climatic conditions not seen for millions of years the consequences are being felt not just in economic damages but risks to human and national security.

Nick Mabey commissioned one of the earliest studies on climate & security as input to the UK Prime Ministers Strategy Unit 2005 “Investing in Prevention” report. From outside government he provided analytical support to the UK-initiated first UN Security Council debate on climate security in 2007. He expanded research into the influential report “Delivering Climate Security” written for the Royal United Services Institute in 2008.

Nick Mabey worked with US and European security and foreign policy actors as they developed their first responses to climate security. Facilitating some of the first inter-agency meetings in Washington and supporting trans-Atlantic collaboration and exchange through the Bush administration years. A critical result of this work was the report “Degrees of Risk” that used security planning approaches to develop a risk management approach to climate change which was highly influential in Washington and beyond.

The security implications of uncontrolled climate change were increasingly understood by politicians as a major reason for aggressive climate change mitigation. But progress has been very slow in protecting people from rising climate & resource security risks through reforms to peace building and conflict prevention practice. Nick Mabey has worked with governments to fill this gap, including: proposals to ensure the hoped for democratic gains of the “Arab Spring” were resilient to climate and resource pressures; proposals to strengthen climate change capability in US, UK and EU government’s security decision support systems; and, analytic support and reform proposals to the UN system.

In partnership with SIPRI, Nick Mabey and Camilla Born supported the Swedish Government in establishing the UN Climate Security Mechanism in 2018 which supports Member States and the UN system in addressing he security risks of climate change.

The impacts of food and energy shocks show the need for radical reform of security, cooperation and peace-buidling regimes globally if human societies are to be resilient to unavoidable climate change.